The first leg of league games of the T20 World Cup 2024 have thrown up some upsets and a case of split points due to rain, which has left one of the favourites in each group with plenty to do to qualify for the Super Eight. Here is a look at the possibilities in each group.
How does USA's defeat to India impact their qualification chances - and Pakistan's?
USA's defeat with 10 balls to spare means that net run rates are now irrelevant in group A. Pakistan have snuck ahead of USA on NRR (0.191 to 0.127), and Pakistan will stay ahead even if they beat Ireland in a Super Over, and if Ireland beat USA similarly. That means Pakistan will qualify if they beat Ireland and USA lose to them, regardless of the margins. For USA to qualify, they need at least a point against Ireland, or they need Pakistan to drop a point.
The biggest concern for Pakistan, therefore, will be the weather in Lauderhill, which will host both these crucial games. If either of them is washed out, then USA will qualify.
What do England need to do to qualify?
Like in group A, there is one team sitting comfortably in group B, Australia, while England are in a position similar to Pakistan's: they need to win their last two, and hope that Scotland lose their last game, against Australia on June 15. The task is a bit tougher for England, though, as they have far more catching up to do on NRR: Scotland are on 2.164, thanks largely to their win with 41 balls to spare against Oman, while England are on -1.8.
If Scotland lose to Australia by 20 runs (say, chasing 161), England will have to win their last two games, against Oman and Namibia, by a combined margin of at least 94 runs to go ahead of Scotland on run rate. Equally importantly, England will be praying for clear weather which will give them the opportunity to stack up the points and the victory margins because another washout will knock them out.
How slim are Sri Lanka's chances?
The washout in Lauderhill means Sri Lanka's chances of qualifying hangs by a slender thread, which includes needing help from the weather. The maximum points they can get is three, if they beat Netherlands in Sunday's game, while Bangladesh and Netherlands are already on two points with two games to go. They need the following sequence of results to stand a chance:
Thursday's Bangladesh-Netherlands match in Kingstown gets washed out, resulting in one point for each team. If either team gets two points, then Sri Lanka will be knocked out.
South Africa beat Nepal on Friday, who in turn beat Bangladesh in Sunday's game.
Sri Lanka beat Netherlands on Sunday in Gros Islet.
Sri Lanka will then finish on three points, along with Bangladesh, Netherlands and Nepal. Net run rates will then come into play, and Sri Lanka will have to make sure they finish above all three teams.
Are New Zealand out of the tournament after their loss to West Indies?
Mathematically, New Zealand still have a chance, but they will need several things to go in their favour. With West Indies already through, New Zealand can only qualify if they knock out Afghanistan, who are currently sitting pretty with two huge wins from two games, a net run rate of 5.225, and a game against PNG to come. New Zealand have lost both matches, and their NRR is -2.425.
For them to qualify, Afghanistan will have to lose both their remaining games - to PNG and West Indies - while New Zealand will have to win their two - against Uganda and PNG - by huge margins. For instance, if Afghanistan lose their last two games by a combined margin of 120 runs, New Zealand will have to win theirs by a combined margin of 187 (assuming scores of 160 by the teams batting first).
If Afghanistan beat PNG or if that game is rained out, then New Zealand are out.
This story was updated after the West Indies vs New Zealand game.
Resources : ESPN. Cricinfo. Com
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