NOTE: Just a warning. Wow, I just realized that my post is
embarrasingly super-long, so read at your own risk? Sorry I just tend to go into these long rambling posts from time to time where I just don't know when to stop! I definitely need to fix that!!!
Okay Germany vs Spain: My amateur predictions....
Before the tournament and Germany's 4-0 win against Argentina, I gave the edge to Spain because they tend to dominate possesion -
however, I'm going to admit I was wrong as I misjudged the strengths of the Germany side, tactically. England and Argentina, both, dominated possesion in their respective matches against Germany - and Germany still won those matches with more than a respectable margin. The reason: counter-attacking. They've really got an amazing formation here with a player like Schwiezsteiger here playing the holding midfielder - that enables swift counterattack. And the fact that they don't dominate possesion and still manage to score 4 goals in their last two matches really worries me for Spain because this isn't the same Germany team from Euro 2008 - that one relied on more pure attacking techniques compared to counter-attacking - so Spain really can't just go expect to win by being able to dominate possesion.
However, the fact that Spain can dominate possesion would be a superb asset for them
if they score that crucial first goal. So really in my opinion, like ShadowKisses has said, this match really depends on who scores that important first goal. If Germany scores it, then Spain will be chasing the game - and Germany can take advantage of that by doing what they do best, counter-attacking like they did with Argentina and England respectively in the previous two matches. If Spain scores it, then Germany will be chasing the game - And Spain can comfortably dominate possesion for the rest of the match playing the game defensively - not letting Germany get the ball to attack and simply frustrating them like they did in Euro 2008. Though ofcourse - I don't think it's going to be as easy for Germany to counter-attack with Spain or Spain to frustrate Germany like both teams have done previously with other teams.
Attack-wise I definitely would give Germany the edge over here. I mean they're the team that has scored the most goals in the tournament uptil now. They have the likes of Klose, Podolski, attacking midfielders like Ozil, a guy like Schweinsteiger - and so far they've all gelled really well as a team - Moreover, they seem comfortable with the Jabulani compared to Spain - though no doubt, Villa also seems to be adept at handing that ball - just not as good as the Germany strikers I would say though. Defense-wise, uhh I'm not that well-versed with the defense of both teams but I would give Spain the edge over here just because they've better defenders than Germany with Puyol, Pique, Ramos compared to Lahm, Boetang, Friedrich - Though to Germany's credit they've never really allowed the opponents a chance to exploit their defense. Now midfield I think is where both the teams are equally good... Germany definitely has an amazing and
young midfield with Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Mueller, Khedira and unlike with England (where the talented midfielders were put in wrong positions/partnerships), and Argentina (where the midfield was poor and definitely not good enough to supplement Argentina's superb strike-force, save for perhaps Mascherano who played more defensively anyways), Spain too have a brilliant midfield. So the game also would really depend on whichever team dominates the midfield - as the midfield is the tie-breaker in this case.
Spain also has a problem with how to deal with Torres not being in his in-form - Villa works much better with a partner occupying both sides of the Spain attack than if he's the lone central striker (which is what he started as in the Switzerland match.) And another advantage of having Torres there is that even if he's in poor form and unlikely to score - no team will be foolish enough to take the risk to allow him freedom with the ball - they are going to mark him which will invariably end up giving Villa more space. But that said, Spain's quality of play improved much more once Torres was subbed off - And like one of my commentators has said the problem is, if they replace Torres with a midfielder then that would essentially change the winning formation of the Spain team. Hopefully if they do replace Torres it's by another forward.... Germany too has a problem with the suspension of Mueller (totally unfair) - though most likely Mario Gomez or Stefan are replacing him and they're just not as strong as Mueller.
Finally, to the predictions themselves... when I envisioned this match-up pre-world cup I never really thought I was going to say that Spain are the underdogs in this match - but there it is... Germany are clearly the favorites over here and rightly so after their awe-inducing win over Argentina. I think it's because Germany seems to have that killer-instinct in this tournament - and they're just bringing their A-game to the tournament and the team just works well together, Spain on the other hand, while they were the pre-tournament favorites, have really not impressed much as team. They have such a talented squad, but they really haven't been performing up to their abilities - and this isn't about their goal margins btw - because they won over Germany in Euro 2008 by 1-nil but I thought that was one of the most decisive wins by Spain - this is different - they lose the ball relatively easily and dare I say, fail to exhibit the spirit they showed to dominate and win every match in Euro 08. That x-factor or quality that made Spain just click as a team and so daunting of an opposition. Hopefully being labeled as the 'underdogs' for the first time in a matchup will work to help them gain that killer instinct. So, it's difficult to rule Spain out - because they have such a talented squad - and if they do find that momentum and balance - then honestly, I would give the Spain the edge in this match.
Overall, and no I'm not chickening out here, I would say both the teams have
equal chances of winning this game. There is no clear favorite, or 'front-runner' in this match IMO. I mean I really can't predict the winner unlike say with Netherlands vs Uruguay. How can one bet against this Germany side with their impressive wins over Argentina/England and Australia in their previous matches, not to mention their track-record with World Cups? Likewise how can one bet against this Spain side which has such awesome talent, and has proved just how well they can play in the world stage with Euro 2008 and their qualifying campaign.
So all in all, this will be a very interesting match to watch. :P
Edited by ProdigalStudent - 14 years ago
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