Networks Primed for Midseason Battle

Networks Primed for Midseason Battle

CBS and ABC might be running neck-and-neck for gold and silver medals in most major demographics, but the return of "American Idol" on January 17 likely will propel Fox Broadcasting Co. into the mix.

"January is going to be a lot more interesting than it usually is," said Kelly Kahl, senior executive vp programing operations at CBS. "Everyone is anxious to make a statement before the Olympics come in. The intensity is greater than in the past, with some big shows on the move."

Among the shows trying new time slots in January are ABC's summer hit Dancing With the Stars and NBC's hottest new half-hour, My Name Is Earl. They join nine new series rolling out before the Olympics commence February 10.

Fourteen weeks into the season, the race in key demographics is as close as expected: CBS is just one-tenth of a rating point ahead of ABC among viewers 18-49, the demographic coveted by advertisers (4.0 to 3.9), and the networks are tied with an 11 share. CBS maintains tight leads over ABC in total viewers, households and adults 25-54. ABC is a hair ahead of Fox among viewers 18-34.

Meanwhile, NBC is down by double digits in all major demos except households (down 7%). Amomng the two younger-skewing broadcasters, UPN has improved its numbers in viewers 12-34 and 18-34, while WB is flailing across the board.

The slightest midseason time-slot shift could influence the outcome of the 2005-06 horse race, which will determine how billions of advertising dollars will be divvied among the broadcasters when the season ends in May. Most executives envision a three-way deadlock in which CBS, ABC and Fox would be separated by one- or two-tenths of a rating point in the 18-49 demographic.

Of all the midseason programs likely to make a difference, Fox planning executive Preston Beckman noted that the Super Bowl, which airs February 5 on ABC and on CBS in 2007, could add a tenth of a point by itself.

"I think the Super Bowl is going to be in the next couple of years the difference between possibly winning or losing a season," said Beckman, the network's executive vp strategic program planning.

Jeff Bader, executive vp of ABC Entertainment, professes that ABC isn't as concerned with winning the season as it is with building the schedule for the long term. More important, he believes, is the composition of the audience; ABC supplanted NBC this season as the top-rated network among upscale viewers 18-49 (though NBC still reigns among shows with highest upscale index).

"What's the difference if you are first, second or third if it's by one- or two-tenths of a point?" Bader said. "The upscale network brings different advertisers. That is what makes the biggest difference."

As for NBC, even a two-week ratings bump from the Olympics likely won't be enough to pull out of the cellar this season. Mitch Metcalf, executive vp program planning and scheduling at NBC, sees its midseason changes as the foundation for 2006-07.

"I think what this does is establish us for the long haul and building for the future," he said.

No night will be under greater scrutiny than Thursday, which attracts the lion's share of marketers, including movie studios intent on getting consumers into theaters during the weekend.

"People see the pot available there, and they want to get some," Kahl said. "Thursday has a lot of economic sway."