Qualification scenarios: India's fate still in their handsRoshan GedeMon, Oct 20, 2025 • 7:35 AM
Despite the recent results, India's fate is in their own hands. ©Getty
20 matches into the round-robin stage of the Women's World Cup 2025, Australia, South Africa and England have confirmed their top-four finish. England's win on Sunday, October 19, has left the five other teams - India, New Zealand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan - in a tussle for the remaining semi-final spot. Here's a detailed look as to what these teams need to get there.
Team-Matches-Won-Lost-NR-Points-9NRR
Australia (Q)540191.818
England (Q)540191.49
South Africa (Q)54108-0.44
India523040.526
New Zealand51224-0.245
Bangladesh51402-0.676
Sri Lanka50322-1.564
Pakistan50322-1.887
India Women
Fixtures remaining: vs NZ-W, vs BAN-W
India's campaign has taken a hit with three straight defeats, but they still have their fate in their own hands. Wins in both their remaining games will take them through. If they beat New Zealand in their next game, they'd almost certainly make it. Even if they go down to Bangladesh then, they just need to ensure that they stay ahead of them on net-run rate, should they too, finish on six points. India hold an advantage on that front, their net run-rate of +0.526 being well ahead of Bangladesh's -0.676 currently.
If they lose to New Zealand but beat Bangladesh in their last league game, they'd make it if England beat the White Ferns before that. That'd be on virtue of more wins, making net run-rate immaterial.
New Zealand Women
Fixtures remaining: vs IND-W, vs ENG-W
New Zealand would've been frustrated of being deprived of a crucial point on Saturday, but they've benefited from England's win over India, making their next contest against the co-hosts a virtual knockout. Wins in both their games would seal their spot. A defeat to India will put an end to their campaign, while they can still make it if they beat India but lose to England in their final league fixture.
In the latter scenario, they would first want Sri Lanka to beat Bangladesh, and then the latter to beat India. There can be a scenario wherein the winner of Match 25 between Sri Lanka and Pakistan finish on six points, tied with New Zealand with as many with two wins each. Even then, New Zealand would hold a firm advantage o((n the net run-rate, as things stand currently.
Bangladesh Women, Sri Lanka Women and Pakistan Women
Fixtures remaining for BAN-W: vs SL-W, vs IND-W
SL-W: vs BAN-W, vs PAK-W
PAK-W: vs SA-W, vs SL-W
All three teams are in a must-win territory. For starters, the loser of Match 21 between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will be knocked out right away. Bangladesh's best chance is to win their remaining two games, and hope for New Zealand to beat India but lose to England. They'll be tied at six points with New Zealand then, but will make it on virtue of three wins to White Ferns' two.
If India beat New Zealand, they'd need to beat the former (and Sri Lanka before that) by a fair margin to stay ahead on net run-rate. They take on India in the last league fixture, and would know exactly what's needed if it gets there.
As for Sri Lanka and Pakistan, who are yet to play each other, even if one of them finishes at six points, they'd need each of the other three teams to finish with no more than two wins. A win for India against New Zealand would knock these two out regardless of what happens before that or thereafter, as even if one of them finishes at six points, they'd only have two wins compared to India's three.
* All calculations are made assuming no more washouts in the coming week
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