What happens if Israel invades Gaza?

What happens if Israel invades Gaza? Enormous costs, devastation, and a possible stalemate


Israel, which is preparing for a ground assault against Hamas, has no easy options on the table. It could possibly destroy the militant leadership, but what happens thereafter isn't clear. Here's why.

Israel appears to be preparing for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. The country’s military on Friday (October 13) told 1.1 million people living in the north of the tiny Palestinian enclave to evacuate within 24 hours

Why does Israel want to invade Gaza? How is it preparing for the operation? What are the challenges? What could be the implications? We take a look.

The goal of the invasion is quite clear: to wipe out the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “destroy and crush” Hamas in a televised address on Wednesday (October 11). “Every Hamas member is a dead man,” he said.

Gilead said this time, “We need to do something far more dramatic”. He added that a large-scale military action would also thwart the rise of Hezbollah and Iran in the region.

The preparation: Thousands of troops ready, supplies to Gaza cut off

Major Gen Amos Gilead, who served in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for 30 years, told the BBC that the invasion could go beyond previous Israeli operations inside Gaza, which were “mainly about containment”. Israel has conducted ground invasions into Gaza twice since it withdrew from the territory in 2005 — the first one took place in 2008 and the second in 2014.

Since the day (October 7) Hamas attacked, Israel has been incessantly bombarding Gaza, striking the militant group’s hideouts and other infrastructure. Till Friday, it had dropped more than 6,000 bombs on the enclave. As a comparison, NATO allies released 7,700 during the entire war in Libya in 2011, a BBC report noted.

So far, at least 2,215 Palestinians have been killed and 8,714 wounded due to the air strikes.

Apart from the bombardment, Israel has also mobilised 360,000 troops — more than 3 per cent of its population — and its navy has enforced a complete naval blockade to ensure Hamas is not resupplied with weapons and supplies by sea. Additionally, Israel has cut off power, fuel, and water supply to the enclave in order to make it harder for the militant group to operate.

If a large-scale invasion is ordered, one or two armoured brigades with tanks would likely push 6 km “west to the coast either north or south of Deir al-Balah, a central city, to cut Gaza in two”, according to Shashank Joshi, deputy editor with The Economist.

Meanwhile, two or three other brigade-sized units, consisting of a few thousand men each, would probably go into the north, including around Gaza City, and one or two other units might attack Khan Younis or Rafah — both cities are located in south Gaza, Joshi said on an Economist podcast.

It could take months for Israel’s forces to eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities. There is also a fear that the invasion will reach a stalemate — just like when the US went into Iraq and Afghanistan, and more recently when Russia invaded Ukrain.

To make matters worse, there are around 150 Israeli and foreign hostages in Gaza. Hamas has threatened to kill one each time Israel strikes civilian homes “without advanced warning”. Israeli officials will also have to chalk out a plan to rescue them without posing too much of a threat to their lives.

The implications: Uncertainty for Israel; disaster for Gaza

It would probably be an impossible task to wipe out Hamas completely, anyway. “No matter how successful the operation proves in defeating Hamas as a military organisation, Hamas’s political imperative and the population’s support for the resistance will continue,” Lieutenant General Sir Tom Beckett of the Institute of Strategic Studies told the BBC.

Even if Hamas is removed from Gaza, there isn’t any potential alternative that can replace the group and govern the territory. Hamas came to power in Gaza after the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections, defeating its rival Fateh — the political party that currently heads the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs 40% of the occupied West Bank. PA is unlikely to get control of Gaza as it is widely unpopular and seen as a corrupt entity.

The other option for Israel is to re-occupy the territory, but that too would be implausible — the Jewish state left Gaza in 2005 partly because it was too costly to hold.

Therefore, what would constitute a victory for Israel remains uncertain.

For Gaza, the invasion would be a catastrophe. The 2 million people in the strip don’t have anywhere to go. Reports said roads and highways have been destroyed, infrastructure has turned into rubble and there is little to no electricity in the territory.

Although Israel has asked inhabitants of northern Gaza to move to the southern part, the country’s military has been bombing Rafah, a city located in south Gaza. One way is to escape to Egypt — the only country, except Israel, that shares its border with the territory. However, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi hasn’t opened the border yet and has shown few signs of offering a friendly refuge.

Originally posted by: Sutapasima

It could take months for Israel’s forces to eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities. There is also a fear that the invasion will reach a stalemate — just like when the US went into Iraq and Afghanistan, and more recently when Russia invaded Ukrain.

To make matters worse, there are around 150 Israeli and foreign hostages in Gaza. Hamas has threatened to kill one each time Israel strikes civilian homes “without advanced warning”. Israeli officials will also have to chalk out a plan to rescue them without posing too much of a threat to their lives.

The implications: Uncertainty for Israel; disaster for Gaza

It would probably be an impossible task to wipe out Hamas completely, anyway. “No matter how successful the operation proves in defeating Hamas as a military organisation, Hamas’s political imperative and the population’s support for the resistance will continue,” Lieutenant General Sir Tom Beckett of the Institute of Strategic Studies told the BBC.

Even if Hamas is removed from Gaza, there isn’t any potential alternative that can replace the group and govern the territory. Hamas came to power in Gaza after the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections, defeating its rival Fateh — the political party that currently heads the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs 40% of the occupied West Bank. PA is unlikely to get control of Gaza as it is widely unpopular and seen as a corrupt entity.

The other option for Israel is to re-occupy the territory, but that too would be implausible — the Jewish state left Gaza in 2005 partly because it was too costly to hold.

Therefore, what would constitute a victory for Israel remains uncertain.

For Gaza, the invasion would be a catastrophe. The 2 million people in the strip don’t have anywhere to go. Reports said roads and highways have been destroyed, infrastructure has turned into rubble and there is little to no electricity in the territory.

Although Israel has asked inhabitants of northern Gaza to move to the southern part, the country’s military has been bombing Rafah, a city located in south Gaza. One way is to escape to Egypt — the only country, except Israel, that shares its border with the territory. However, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi hasn’t opened the border yet and has shown few signs of offering a friendly refuge.

That's terrible, isn't it? Why wouldn't he? If not now, then when?

Jordan is refusing too, but Jordan has accepted millions of refugees over the decades

Meanwhile a son of hamas co- founder suggests a solution which is shocking and in his own words horrible

https://youtu.be/nMCC2ihCowg?si=xy6j0omBuf6xoExN

How are they suppossed to get women and children out safely in the first place?

^^^

After removing hamas rule, replace it with Palestinian or Egyptian regime or Arab league force, only then give them the aid, he says

A what-if analysis is more a debate/discussion that could be posted on or moved to, DM. For that matter, I wasn't even sure of the rationale behind compartmentalizing Israel-Palestine conflict as a current affair.

Most likely, "what happens if Israel invades Gaza?" would soon turn into a "what happens when Israel invades Gaza?". Israel is fighting for its existence and not only has every right to defend its citizens against the terrorist attacks of Hamas, Hezbollah and possibly ISIS, but also to take the fight to them, wherever in that territory the terrorists and supporting military personnel have embedded themselves.

While the "endgame" could be the dismantling of Hamas and other terrorist groups, it is of course easier said than done as Hamas is not just a military and political force on the strip but also quite popular. You can't "destroy" popularity and support. If it (a total wipe-out of Hamas) could be done, it would have already been done.

I believe the US too is asking for an incursion delay so in the meantime it could better prepare against attacks on its interests in that region.

While the possible ground offensive and subsequent fight alone could go on for weeks or months, the variables to me are Iran, China, North Korea and Russia. Everyone's itching for some action in that belt and they may yet get it. That's when things will take a much darker turn.

One of the comments here said, With all the American money & weapon they get, if Israel wanted to do a total wipeout of Hamas they could’ve done it years ago

They haven’t done it cz they want to keep Hamas so they can blame them (or something like that) 

I was incredulous… 

We can be certain of one thing though

Whenever there’s an attack and Israel strikes back, CNN would be there waiting with their cameras and crew, even before the strike begins, to film children and babies 

Originally posted by: TotalBetty

One of the comments here said, With all the American money & weapon they get, if Israel wanted to do a total wipeout of Hamas they could’ve done it years ago

They haven’t done it cz they want to keep Hamas so they can blame them (or something like that) 

I was incredulous… 

I also read here that hamas was created by Israel. If so, why were muslims supporting them in the first place?

Hamas said the killings and raping of israelis were carried out by palestanian civilians who accompanied them during their terror attacks.

From what happened on 7th oct, I can just imagine the horrors our ancestors must have gone through when these barbarians kept invading indian cities and towns for centuries...it's so pathetic as well as sad how rapes, tortures, beheadings and killings is so normalized in the name of religion even today. How does one sympathize with their cause is beyond me! 

This is what happens when Israel the 4th strongest army invades Gaza that has no army 

 Zionists who fled their homes since the start of the war:

👉 Gaza kibbutz: 12,000

👉 Kiryat shamouna: 23,000

👉 Askalaan (Ashkelon): 60,000

👉 North of occupied Palestine: 38,000

👉 Sderot: 31,000

TOTAL = 126,000 

Again: this occupation entity is artificial, fragile

That's why Netanyahu just said it will be long and difficult... really long and difficult? They have been attacked from the sky, sea and ground.. 1000s of missiles dropped .. why will it take long? They are dead / wounded or starving. But it will take awhile ... I suppose it comes down to the quality of resistance vs quantity of zions