Corona Virus (COVID -19) #2 - DT Note : pg 35,141 - Page 68

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1116756 thumbnail
Posted: 5 years ago

‘We will not have a vaccine by next winter.’ CDC says second wave of coronavirus could be worse.


Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also said the novel coronavirus “might keep coming back” year after year. “The ultimate game changer in this will be a vaccine,” he said. But that, Fauci estimated, could take 12 to 18 months.


“The four seasonal coronaviruses do not seem to induce long-term immunity,” said Gregory Poland, who studies the immunogenetics of vaccine response in adults and children at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., and expert with the Infectious Diseases Society of America.


Coronavirus immunity differs from other diseases. Immunizations against smallpox, measles or Hepatitis B should last a lifetime, Poland said.


Coronaviruses, first discovered in the 1960s, interact with our immune system in unique and different ways, he added.


“The 1918 Spanish flu’s second wave was even more devastating than the first wave,” Ravina Kullar, an infectious-disease expert with the Infectious Diseases Society of America and adjunct faculty member at the University of California, Los Angeles, told MarketWatch.


Historians believe that a more virulent influenza strain hit during a hard three months in 1918 and was spread by troops moving through Europe during the First World War. A mutated strain would be a worst-case scenario for a second wave of SARS-CoV-2 this fall or winter.


‘We really need to have wide-scale testing available, and contact tracing to find everyone who has been exposed.’

--Ravina Kullar, an expert with the Infectious Diseases Society of America.


And the second wave of SARS-CoV-2? “It will likely hit harder in areas not severely impacted the first time in the interior of the U.S., where there’s a lot more susceptible people,” Kullar said. “COVID-19’s sweet spot could be October to May, with it peaking, likely, in October and November.”


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-will-not-have-a-vaccine-by-next-winter-what-happens-when-coronavirus-returns-2020-04-22

...


When you do get to go back to restaurants or other enclosed space, in addition to noting where the exits are, also take note of where the air conditioning vents are !!

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article#tnF1


---

Study of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport.


Open state parks, keep gyms closed !


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

Edited by Himalaya10 - 5 years ago
1116756 thumbnail
Posted: 5 years ago

India 5lakh tests - 20k positive

US 5lakh tests - 88k positive

India usually tests only people who are high risk and showing lot of China virus symptoms. I thought India should have been higher at this stage of testing.


======

HCQ - No benefits, increased Deaths,...

.

Do we need to bother anymore? Medicine already discovered by Dr.president

An anti-malaria drug touted by President Trump as a potential "game changer" amid the coronavirus outbreak showed no benefit for patients, according to an analysis of those hospitalized in Veterans Health Administration medical centers.

The analysis found the two primary outcomes for COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine were death and the need for mechanical ventilation.


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493931-largest-analysis-of-hydroxychloroquine-use-finds-no-benefit-increased


=======

Earliest known COVID19 deaths in the US likely in February in Santa Clara County.

So this raises the possibility that there were further deaths in SC county in Jan and certainly in Feb that were not attributed to the virus. If there wasn't an outbreak in an assisted living center or the like (as there was in WA) or someone didn't have a travel history to China, it's quite likely that such deaths might have been misattributed. I'm also not sure, but there may not be that many senior assisted care centers in SC county compared to other areas.[ I remember there's a VA hospital in Palo Alto -- but I'm not sure if they report directly to VA in DC rather than to the local health department. ]


Some prelim results from NY indicate that around 21% of NYC may be infected. With that high a number, false positives are less of an issue.

Around 1.8M. Around 15K deaths in NYC. With some lags in death (antibody results lag too, but less than death), fatality rate of around 0.8-1% (heavily skewed towards older people).
It looks less for LI, Westchester (although Westchester numbers are blended with Rockland, so hard to tell).

I was hoping for higher, so we'd be near herd immunity in NYC

NYC is bimodal in it's health (just as in wealth). It has some very healthy people and some very unhealthy people.


====


Now below link says,

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-survey-reveals-13-9-percent-in-new-york-have-covid-19-antibodies-cuomo-says/


In a sampling of 3,000 people taken at grocery stores across the state, the survey showed 13.9% of those had coronavirus antibodies, indicating they had previously been exposed but have overcome the disease.

Cuomo called the results “preliminary,” and said the sample size will continue to expand.


13.9% would indicate it is about 2.7M, per Cuomo. That would put the state-wide fatality rate around 0.57%.


Now,..

One should adjust for lag in deaths which would drive that number up a little. Also, I think some of NYC's presumptive deaths aren't included in the whole NY death count yet.

But in general I think NYC rate > counties near NY > upstate NY counties. Statistical and sampling artifacts become more pronounced at lower prevalence rates. And of course, age and health make a big difference. And if the virus gets into a senior center, the way it did in LI.


21% in NYC strikes me as very plausible.- What say?


========

1116756 thumbnail
Posted: 5 years ago

What is your opinion on keeping open churches, temples, mosques ?


Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday said that Pakistan is "an independent nation" while addressing a question regarding the government's decision to continue to keep mosques open even as Muslim countries around the world have decided to keep them closed in view of the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1551093/we-are-an-independent-nation-pm-imran-responds-to-questions-over-keeping-mosques-open


^^

Criminal idiocy. At most, I would say open air gatherings, where people maintain at least 6 ft of separation, don't touch each other, don't sing or shout loudly (which could carry virus droplets) etc.

Oh ! How can you say that? For me god is the most important. I dont even care about economy. You will open banks and economic activity but prevent me from worshiping my god? ( wink )

One thing I observed is that despite the lockdown India increased in rate of infection and death rate where as Pakistan which had more cases at one point is now fallen behind. Why, under reporting ?

Perhaps,..Pakistan is much smaller than India, their per capita rate is higher. But yes, they may not be testing as much as India or may be deliberately under-reporting.

S. Korea got its act together quite early. That does not mean they are out of the woods yet. We have to be careful of future waves of the virus. Lockdown is not the answer each time a wave comes.


In India we cannot wait to open the economy or lift the lockdown until testing becomes available more widely or all the risks are taken care of. The only thing that might happen is that tax rates might go up to take care of the crisis expenditure. As is the wont of the current regime, they will add another cess on top of already existing ones. How many will accept that?

Rich vs poor people, rich vs poor nations, employed vs unemployed will all have different ways of looking at the lockdown and all right in their own ways. But the following cannot be wrong in India:

1) Rolling lockdowns every time a wave resurfaces is not the solution. Better option is to identify the vulnerable and protect them from death. Infection is a given and will be the new normal to be accepted.

2) GOI (India) should stop engaging in wars with opposition or some communities. Identifying cases due to Tablighi and making the statistic public, propping up media to insult people like Mrs. Gandhi in the midst of such a crisis are not going to contribute to the war in any way. Same goes for opposition. West Bengal should start co-operating, opposition should stop giving soundbites, lip service in the fight and do more meaningful work.

I am not hopeful of the right thing happening. But I will be eagerly waiting to be able to go out and start interviewing to become employed again.


I agree Lockdown punishes the downtrodden disproportionately. However, it is also true if Lockdown was not implemented (in India) again it would have been the downtrodden who would have suffered most casualties and morbidities. The richer would have taken up places in the hospital using their social and financial capital. Even after Lockdown opens up it will be the downtrodden who will be at risk the most. Like I said earlier there are bad answers and worse answers, no good answers - in the short term of a month or two at least.

I understand. Maybe my views are colored by my own situation. Virus, like terrorism, needs us to to be carefree or make a mistake only once. We will not know for sure if the governments are being over-cautious and killed the economy for nothing only after a few months or a couple of years. I hope the governments are being honest and not forcing this situation of suppressing liberties and rights using the pretext of Carona. If it is a genuine mistake (if it indeed is a mistake), then that should be acceptable. Alternatively, it may turnout that lockdown was the only solution and they were right and smart. We will know in 18-24 months.

Well,... perhaps,..

We will never know.

People opposed to govt. will find arguments to say that Govt. made a blunder.

People supporting govt. will go on explaining that it was the only sane decision.

Yess,....we will never know. It will become political football quickly and people will move on. Scientists will publish papers and some truth regarding what really happened will be buried in there and no one will look at it...till another pandemic arrives.


https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

^ Somehow this remains the view of Americans even after 48K+ deaths,..

Supports lifting of complete lock downs in favour of using data driven localized decisions!

But they say,...Things have improved a bit overall. Today CA governor sounded that gradual opening up will happen with more testing, contact tracing and isolating trouble areas approach .

If we can get testing to scale up so that contact tracing can be implemented, we can at least have a system in place than blindly opening up and it flaring up again and one more lock down.

I think California needs to take lead in opening up as they tackled issue well for a big state that initially thought to be devastated by this pandemic.

show the rest of US, they way forward Californians!

CA Governor has ordered more testing kits( for both swabs and serology to detect antibodies), more PPE like masks showing that he is open to lifting lockdown gradually and sooner than later. He wants to see results of testing, contact tracing before he commits a date.

Many prefer his pragmatic approach than some Governors announcing in mid April that worst is over.


Yess,...

There are solutions being implemented by countries like Germany and South Korea.

Instead of asking our govts to do the right thing we want to take the easy route of sacrificing lives to build herd immunity.

It has been three months and still the priority is not what needs to be done to do epidemic management the right way.

BTW, if lock down was not implemented in India and god forbid it would have gone the way of NYC or Italy/Spain , we would have a complete chaos with 10s of millions very sick and millions dead.

Unfortunately people do not even know what to ask from their govt and hence only thing that comes to their mind is the old way, where private sector runs the economy and govts does their non stop show business for elections.

BTW, my comment was not even for India. It was for USA where we have enough resources to take care of this problem without sending people in harms way to develop herd immunity. But we got an incompetent federal govt and hence its now falling on state govt who do not have the money.

I still cannot understand why the federal govt is reluctant to do it the right way.

I read somewhere that they are afraid more positive results will make the public think that we are not ready to end lock down and will not participate in economy hence defeating the purpose of the reelection committee.

Its not like we are dealing with a new science, it is well established and proven epidemic management protocol which needs to be followed.

Oh well in future we need a change for emergency situations so that more money can be diverted to states than only the federal govt having access to infinite funds but doing nothing since its being run by a diva, elected by weird election system, with no real responsibility. Past three days, "new cases by day" seems to have increased for CA. Same with "deaths by day". I don't think CA has improved yet.

I think California released a huge backlog of test results over the last 2 days. Something like 165-185K results. The vast majority are negative, but even a very small positive rate skews their number upwards.

Kind of annoying for someone trying to track trends -- in fact, the numbers are so large, they throw off trends for the whole country.

.


.

California's cases went up due to backlog of tests released but still in 9th place in fatalities and deaths/Million population is not high compared to NY/NJ/MA


b-t-w, again talking about India, they say results may go PEAK in mId-May ( Hope not ! )

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-epidemic-could-peak-in-india-by-mid-may-study/articleshow/75283258.cms


Let's wait n' watch,... Let time 2 tell the story, and God over head whom we trust and believe,.. ! Astu.

Edited by Himalaya10 - 5 years ago
1116756 thumbnail
Posted: 5 years ago

Now, even two bad news :(


1. Drug REMDESIVIR , from Company GilDea ( Or, smthg ) ( we had high hopes.. ) is giving dissatisfactory results and has nearly failed to solve its purpose any effectively.

2. Dr. Fauci ( Amariki ) is almost positive that even this virus is calmed down in mid-summer, it will definitely come back in next Fall : sept-oct. : time, for sure. Uh !

( It seems like, Yeh Virus aab kayum ke vaaste, apoon le lalaat pe likh gayela hoyela !! ) Pud gayi Janaab, Main toh aap ke Gale,..... aab toh Nibhaaye bagairh naa Chale ! :(


Edited by Himalaya10 - 5 years ago
tabby999 thumbnail
14th Anniversary Thumbnail Trailblazer Thumbnail + 5
Posted: 5 years ago

Originally posted by: Himalaya10

Might sound like humor, but one could find a clip or two from TV/social media pundits since start of this pandemic and create this video...

.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVs5AyjzwRM

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Some one ate an apple and we were born.

Another guy ate a bat and now we are all dying.

Clearly demonstrates - Eating is a problem, NOT drinking.

hilarious...pretty good...she must be some far off sister of Tedross
Sutapasima thumbnail

Creative Minds

Posted: 5 years ago

Originally posted by: Himalaya10

What is your opinion on keeping open churches, temples, mosques ?


Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday said that Pakistan is "an independent nation" while addressing a question regarding the government's decision to continue to keep mosques open even as Muslim countries around the world have decided to keep them closed in view of the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1551093/we-are-an-independent-nation-pm-imran-responds-to-questions-over-keeping-mosques-open


^^

Criminal idiocy. At most, I would say open air gatherings, where people maintain at least 6 ft of separation, don't touch each other, don't sing or shout loudly (which could carry virus droplets) etc.

Oh ! How can you say that? For me god is the most important. I dont even care about economy. You will open banks and economic activity but prevent me from worshiping my god? ( wink )



Let's wait n' watch,... Let time 2 tell the story, and God over head whom we trust and believe,.. ! Astu.


Edited by Sutapasima - 5 years ago
Sutapasima thumbnail

Creative Minds

Posted: 5 years ago

Originally posted by: angel_juhi04

When yesterday I said it you told me they gave reasons to protest against lockdown. What reasons they have to protest against lockdown? Yaha logon ki jaan gale me atki padi hai aur inhe kisi ki chinta nahi. Both our states are highest hut so we know our situations.


Angel you please do take care of yourself and follow personal safety hygienic precautions as advised during this Pandemic ... those who want to show they are brave let them do ... Please eat well n stay happy 🤗... we all are worried for our loved ones ... 🤗

Sutapasima thumbnail

Creative Minds

Posted: 5 years ago

Originally posted by: tabby999

Americans are behaving foolish ..

Saw one video by redfish .American people against lockdown saying that it's against their constitutional rights .one said with out any shame ..so what people keep on dying ..it's ok ..


Yaar Kya hai inki soch ???

Tabby😒 .. You please take care of yourself.... 🤗

Edited by Sutapasima - 5 years ago

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