Corona Virus (COVID -19) #2 - DT Note : pg 35,141 - Page 89

Originally posted by: tabby999

Hi viswa..

What is A2a...is this mean..air to air transmission..

Originally posted by: Swetha-Sai

Thanks for the much needed positivity for all of us, Viswa! 🤗

Originally posted by: tabby999

Simple solution ..

Government needs to ban tiktok..kai nations mein tiktok ban hai so Indian govt ko aisa karna chahiye...china khud ke phones,applications use karta hai so why can't Indian government do that ..

But big problem ...corruption...humare yahan jo bhi sarkar banata hai, jo bhi mantri hai woh aapne fayade ke liye kuch bhi kar sakte hai ..so less chance ki Chinese ban hoga ..

China agar angry ho bhi gayi tho Kya farak padega woh kabhi bhi india se happy nahi ho sakta...they want to capture northern india ..

Ranvir Singh ya neena gupta ke add na karne se koi aur usse kar lega..Chinese khana log khana thodi band karege..bas shart yeh ki woh china mein na bana ho 😂...

Capture North India? Aisa nahi hona chaahiye. We already had North India captured for 1000 years by Invaders and then British. Invaders ruined many of our monuments in North and South making their monuments over them. Don't want India captured again. Indian govt should stop pleasing everyone. At least Atal as PM got Parmanu made by hiding and threatened Pak PM who earlier threatened him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_3Xq-QociY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS9Lw6l57m0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dlUqlMDkR4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv5EEP0Mq68

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPuOmFL14Zs

Originally posted by: angel_juhi04

Capture North India? Aisa nahi hona chaahiye. We already had North India captured for 1000 years by Invaders and then British. Invaders ruined many of our monuments in North and South making their monuments over them. Don't want India captured again. Indian govt should stop pleasing everyone. At least Atal as PM got Parmanu made by hiding and threatened Pak PM who earlier threatened him.

Juhi ..zayada tension na lo ..China direct attack nahi karega ..woh pehle indo china war ho chuka 1962 ..hindi chinni bhai bhai 🤣 ..so ab nahi hoga

China now doing it by capturing India economically ..

Kal kya hoga kisse pata toh don't worry about it ..

Yeh politics sahi galat nahi dekhti ...sab aapna aapna ullu sidha kar rahe hai aur hum garib prajja shikaar ho rahe hai ..

I am losing my trust on modi government too ..

Keep ur spirit high and pray to ur beloved Lord to save us from all ill around ..

Prayers and FAITH help us to fight against all odds..

All will be well soon ...

ॐ असतो मा सद्गमय ।

तमसो मा ज्योतिर्गमय ।

मृत्योर्मा अमृतं गमय ।

ॐ शान्तिः शान्तिः शान्तिः ॥

Om Asato Maa Sad-Gamaya |

Tamaso Maa Jyotir-Gamaya |

Mrtyor-Maa Amrtam Gamaya |

Om Shaantih Shaantih Shaantih ||

Singaporean Graphs !

I have no idea whats the point of those forecasts if they have to change the date by 5 days in just 2-3 days.

I guess in absence of good data, even junk stuff seems interesting these days.

Well!!!! they have to go scientifically with TRUE data otherwise

complete normalcy will be restored after 18 June 2020 when Mars will enter Pisces and will aspect Rahu who is the seat of this Virus. Unless of course if Ketu ruler invades Rahu. ;)

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/?fbclid=IwAR2V82HVTifS-B-IMO8sJjwBr0-2PSB_auHgQ0wFZQv5nmGxjdGrkmlkV7Y

^ Interesting but dont know how accurate it will turn out to be!

'Coz it is not.

Tell ya Singaporean calculations,...

Seem weird. BTW, what does end means, say for USA it is May 9?

Seems like, it is only speculating on the number of new cases/day dropping below 4000 per day?

I guess due to lack of real data, all we can do here is speculate using existing data. I wish we will get the antibody testing rolled out for masses, we will get some real data.

Though, It's certainly interesting, and they describe their methodology well, and provide code.

They are just using trend analysis to forecast a drop in new cases below 97% curve area (tail).

It will be surprising if their forecast for USA came true. I think it was something like May 9 on 25th April, for 97% end, so its kind of a moving target. Now they have changed it to May 14.

I am not sure this is generated by humans, nobody will say 100% by Sept,because its a given that this virus will most likely stay with us for few years on and off.

They're using a very simple infection/recovery model, setting up a set of linear differential equations. Then they solve the equations and try and find parameters for the equation using real data (from the beginning of the epidemic) and a numerical equation solver. Then they plot the equations they derived. They update with real data, and generate new parameters (daily ?) and new plots.

So it's interesting enough, but quite simple. Countries go into and out of lockdown, and that changes the parameters to the model, but they assume the same equations and parameters can be used to fit it from the beginning. I wouldn't place too much faith in it for results more than a few days out. They don't claim otherwise either.

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What ya guys say, about Singaporean Theories,....... just extend yr ideas,..

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/asia/new-zealand-elimination-coronavirus-jacinda-ardern-intl/index.html

Seems like NZ has eliminated this virus.. Kudos,...

...

btw ,..New York hospitals are studying a common heartburn drug as treatment for Covid-19

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/27/health/famotidine-coronavirus-northwell-trial/index.html

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Majority of states have Rt <1 , now.

https://rt.live

May be if people follow the guidelines and there is restriction on crowds etc, then business etc can start to re-open.

..

The world's largest vaccine maker is producing 40 million units of a coronavirus vaccine on trial in Oxford, without knowing whether it works.

The Serum Institute of India says it will start production of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine while the vaccine is still being tested.

The Oxford Vaccine Group on Thursday started human trials on its hAdOx1 nCoV-19 coronavirus vaccine, and they aren't expected to be finished until September.

Even when September arrives, however, there is no guarantee the vaccine will have worked.

"The decision — at our own risk and cost — has been solely taken to get a jump-start on manufacturing," Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawalla said on Monday.

^^ Source : https://www.businessinsider.com/india-serum-institute-millions-oxford-university-vaccine-before-approval-2020-4

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So what do u guys think.. will the lockdown be extended any further?

It shall continue in most places. There would be partial relaxation in areas that have not reported any virus positives. Probably end May will see widespread relaxation. It can be as early as May 20 but not earlier.

All this provided Muslim Jamat type incident does not happen and DW does not remember the faults she has not uncovered so far.

Based on everything I have heard, seems like India will not go the route of the European countries or NYC - seems like not even one tenth of these locations in terms of fatality?

One thing I heard is maybe milder strain became prevalent in India hence less number of fatality.

he researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.

That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end.

The results are similar but not identical to other serological surveys in California, but indicate far less infections than a recent survey in New York, which found a nearly 14% infection rate statewide and upwards of 20% in New York City.

btw,....

Even I was not entirely convinced about the conclusions one can draw from the model's predictions.

As I understand broadly there are one of the two ways , at least for the first wave of this pandemic to end.

First way, which many virologists and epidemiologists of repute around the world subscriber to is, virus is here to stay until the population develops herd immunity due to spread of infection, slowly in case of lock downs, social distancing etc, and more rapidly in their absence with greater casualties , or until effective vaccine is found which in best real life case scenario is 18 months away.Some experts in fact believe an effective vaccine may never be possible, like for common cold which too is caused by a corona virus.( Ian clark of Australia who co developed the HPV vaccine).

Second favoured view is the virus is likely seasonal like other sister corona and influenza viruses are and first wave would diminish and go away along with significant attenuation of the virulence of the virus. This theory is bolstered by SARS and MERS both of which were predicted to cause millions of deaths but mysteriously disappeared suddenly, so much so that SARS vaccine development was stalled and was put off.

No one for sure knows which of the two is likely for COVID 19. My hunch (which could be wrong) is the second view.

The only place we can go by to gauge how the virus may behave is seeing whats happening in China. For past nearly 5 to 6 weeks or little less, they are virtually not adding any new cases. Few being added are largely attributed to cases coming from abroad by returning Chinese. Even Wuhan the epicentre of the pandemic is largely open (with caution) and there is certainly no major outbreak seen. How does one explain this? Could this entirely be explained by the the most stringent measures ever undertaken and followed which resulted in near complete extermination of the virus from a population of 1.5 billion, possible but is it probable, don't think so. Then the only explanation could be the virus has run its first wave course in China due to its seasonality, natural attenuation as virus can thrive only when it does not kill, and so the same trajectory may be seen in other places it spread, say Italy first, other countries in Europe, US, and then countries like India which lagged behind by a few weeks for the first case and also imposed stringent lock down and other measures proactively. We may therefore peak by another 2 to 3 weeks and then start to decline. The only X factor here is the effect we have to see when lock down ends, as we just can't practically follow voluntary measures like social distancing , tests of high volume, contact tracing and isolation etc, which richer and less populated countries can do to a large extent. We may end up with under few thousand deaths in India by then.

Well,.....

Let's hope for the best for the worlds sake..

Unfortunately this is just a very slow moving storm and we have no choice but to wait few more weeks to get more data.

I was kind of shocked this morning when I heard that Spain and Italy are still not ending lock down. Its been more than 8 weeks for them. I was under the impression that things were in control over there and they can relax a bit.

Next shocking thing was strict lock down being extended in India for two more weeks given that number of cases and fatality has been nowhere near western countries. Dont know whats the reality.

BTW, I would not trust China data about there being no new cases or deaths. Given how every country is struggling to manage their economy, I would not be surprised if China is trying to underplay this so that people can get back to work.

Its possible that in the first wave itself they had more than 50% people get infected since they were late to accept about this disease and lock down may have not been implemented for at least two months when the virus was going around infecting ton of people.

But one thing for sure, its easy to hide 300-1000 deaths in a highly populous country like China but they will not be able to hide 2000-5000 deaths and if huge number of people start falling seriously sick.

Yes, I also don't know what is the reality and I wonder if the people in power also know the complete truth.

From what I see around (very limited) and hear from people I know in near and far places; they broadly confirm what I read in the papers and see on TV (from their own limited view but not as restricted as mine.)

As you know, we Indians are totally uncivilised and need some ort of constraints to behave, the extension of lockdown is necessary. They have started to talk of partial (area wise and freedom) lifting of restrictions. My locality has been declared a green zone. I can leave the locality and return but outsiders are not allowed in. In our locality bank branches shall open tomorrow with lower number of employees and restricted dealings. Kirana shops will open but non-essential services will not be allowed. Hair dressers are still not allowed and with Mahabharat being broadcast, we have plenty of Dronacharya, Vyas and August characters floating around.

With no beauty parlours available, I have requested my attractive, beautiful, charming DW to not take me visiting for at least a week after these open to avoid darshan of Hidimbnas, Srupnakhas, Putnas and Tadakas.

I am willing to extend my imprisonment by a week or a month (I have learnt to live with it) if that will prevent re-occurrence a month or two later after a mass cremation.

India has a large number of poor and poverty stricken who will continue as such as the economy gets hit and shall continue few months longer in that state but will retain their life. They will not probably die of hunger as I know of widespread govt and private operations providing food to the impoverished. Believe it or not there are a lot of uncivilized Indians with a heart of gold good at hiding it. I know still some will still die from hunger but that is par for normal times. Consider those as collateral damage same as that happened when a radar controlled missile hits a hospital or orphanage due to software(?) error.

I still believe that some kind of restriction needs to be continued till end May. These are just the views of an ignorant Indian. I know English speaking Harvard educated people are better but for the time being I shall stick with my khaki chaddi clad. ( wink ,.. EZ folks,... )

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A sneeze in time infects nine.

312 died in pakistan.

in america many people died.

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तेरे जीवन का है कर्मो से नाता....

तू ही अपना भाग्य विधाता.....

जैस लिखेगा तू कर्मो की रेखा ,......

देना होगा तिल - तिल का लेखा .... !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8P4chOLbVo&t=8s

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM6MI298-kI

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