Corona Virus (COVID -19) #2 - DT Note : pg 35,141 - Page 38

Originally posted by: angel_juhi04

You are really honest in saying truth about your own country that is lying about death numbers putting every deaths under corona for their benefits. And in our country in Bengal as one saud above, hospital saying staffs to not record corona cases to show their cases as lie to others. Ye khud bhi marenge aur haad me poore India ko maarenge.

Yaah,.. they ( MOD ) don't like even discussing a small fragment of politics here, but to keep it in short,... have heard that BJP / present Govt is somehow in a mode/attempt to competing w/ the other first world nations, by keeping the corona death number low, ( to win Oscar / Nobel / Be Vishwa-guru show-off ? ) and hence more worried about saving not only Jamaati's lives, but also hiding the related/unrelated death numbers and thus trying to be the winner for a ratio of death /Population <-- ratio THE lowest, just to prove and show efficiency,... and hence our problem is in the reverse side rather, than US !

Originally posted by: BilliCat.

The health care in Italy is seriously so good. the one factor mattered and also they took the detected cases as true cases. But even when the situations worsened, they did not give up hope. Right now they have reduced the number of deaths per day too right? The maximum number of cases are from US now, earlier it was in Italy. It job well done by good dedicated doctors <3 Hopefully US, India and entire world gets this pandemic under control.

@bold: yes. The doctors said we crossed the peak and now we are on the right side of the graph. We had like 1k+ deaths in a day. Today the deaths were 500+ still too much.

Originally posted by: angel_juhi04

I wish your country also starts improving and getting better. Not just average healthcare system in our country but other issues like large population of 132 cr(Italy has I think only 6 cr), politics issue, constant attempt to ruin lockdown and social distance, low number of tests and some states(like someone mentioned above) showing low number of cases by hospitals telling staffs not to record corona cases.

I think the entire world is the same.

Because we too have stupid people that try to break the lockdown, especially in south.
the worse part is that the police force can’t do much except warning them, fine them, taking them to the police station and then leave them. Democracy...

I saw so much patience in the police that I have to salute them, because if I was in them I would have surely punched those idiots who were saying something like “we are international citizens so the Italy law doesn’t apply to us”

Such idiots kud to mareghe leki kisi or ko bhi saath leke jaye ghe.

Even we have political problems.

My region was fast to recover because the governor of the region went against the central government and did his own thing, testing lots of people, the ones that they thought that could be at risk.

Honestly I was happy with what they did till now, but from next week they are going to open few categories of shops, which I think is too early.
being the region with the second best healthcare of italy and less cases of deaths, the government wants to try the reopening from Us. If it works than from the 3rd may it will be applied slowly slowly to the other regions too.
I hope that I’ll be proved wrong, but I fear that the cases will start increasing again.

Many ppl wonders about Sweden's low nos of deaths, but,.. the reasons are here,...

https://www.bbc.com/…/20190821-why-so-many-young-swedes-liv…

https://www.flashpack.com/…/rela…/sweden-solo-living-single/

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Sweden deaths despite low density has 132 deaths per million (on today's numbers) way higher than neighboring countries and testing figures are way low compared to neighboring countries.

By comparison, Denmark has reported 321 COVID-19 deaths, Norway has reported 150 deaths and Finland has reported just 75, the data shows.

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https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/sweden-grapples-with-high-death-toll-after-controversially-refusing-to-lockdown/

Neighboring countries, Finland, Denmark, Norway etc have low numbers per million.

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NY state population density is 700% of Sweden .

NYC population density is over 500% of Stockholm.

NYC population is 9 to 10 times compared to Stockholm

Not just the population numbers but population density makes an enormous impact.

If there are 16 people in an acre of land and 2 (2 out of 16 = 12.5%) are infected. Will the rest get infected? Slim chances.

If instead population density increases and there are 160 people in the acre and 20 (same 12.5%) are infected, chances are exponential that many many others will get infected.

So population density makes exponential impact.

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BTW, South Korea did not go for a complete lockdown. They only restricted movements of infected and vulnerable. But it is a small country with ability to do lot of testing. Big countries like USA, India should use it as a model at state level. If governments can provide basic necessities to all, lockdown is OK. If not, it is a problem. Also, population density is very important. Densely populated need lockdown.

In India, population and density are high, but infection rate is low ( 1 in 24 tested people is positive). So lockdown was not necessary. But general lack of education and sensitivity makes it requirement. India’s case also raises that we do not know a lot. Is temperature and local immunity playing a role? Otherwise there should be many cases. With all negatives of high density, less responsible population, poor facilities India has lesser numbers than expected. So is it the climate or just less testing? Virus in Europe and America might be different strain than India. Even with all positives of less density, better facilties, law-abiding and instruction following people, many people are dying there. It is also possible that India, like Germany, is not assigning all positive deaths to Carona. Other countries might be doing it.

Lockdown is not a universal solution for all. Poor countries with large poor class cannot while rich can afford. But poor countries usually have less educated population not obeying rules and more density. So it becomes a difficult decision for poor countries. Rich countries who are not densely populated don’t need it except packed metros. We know so little and the patterns of deaths and infections are so anamolous to expectations that it is difficult to arrive at a general solution. Anything that has worked in some country will have failed in other. Governments should be intelligent to study and understand what will be effective for them. Even for each country, they should study at state and district levels and then apply lockdown. In places like metros lockdown is important of there are many cases. What is required in terms of studying, planning and implementation is far more than the easy and general ways adopted.

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btw-

Good article arguing against lockdown in India.

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/main-article/coronavirus-a-wildly-exaggerated-threat-826223.html

Broad guidelines for phased reopening of economy and social life:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6840663-Governmentpacket.html

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Looks like a Gilead Sciences drug is effective. It is credible because markets jumped 2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

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One needs to compare with the number of severe cases who actually revive normally. Severe cases don't revive that often, so it could be good news.

[ Honestly though, the market shouldn't expect a miracle drug. ]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

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https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/?_page=3&fbclid=IwAR1ys6JSYnO0QwlRhC18gcEDNOsJDXugrCObU4rIxmPD7-KmIwPO6meBH2o

^ Brilliant write up, one of the best I have come across, answers how one can take opposite positions based on our own prejudices. In short how do we know, what we believe is true or correct?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oDn5jhvz1o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtLm55InjIQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogTHdwijRY8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL0jQsiA3oI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoY-32-MbvM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq3FdcnZfO4

Here in US,

Since there is no nationwide shut down, it is up to the governors to decide how to reopen their individual states. It is more tricky for some states than others ex: in a tri state like my relatives MD-VA-DC has to act in tandem. We go for a 1 hour drive, we cross state lines 3/4 times, so if one state opens and others don't then there is nothing being achieved. There has to be a collective strategy and collective action based on the ground situations in their areas. Populous cities/states might have to deploy a different strategy compared to certain red states where this might not even be a big problem. Remember the shut down is mainly in place to reduce the overload on the health care system as we do not have enough hospitals/doctors/nurses for the onslaught of cases being seen in some clusters. But in cities/states where the hospital system is not overloaded, they can open their economies in phases and still be able to deal with hospitalizations.

But no matter what the government does , people should follow common sense. Everyone is having cabin fever at this point but like many others have already echoed, people will not be rushing to stores, movie theaters or stadiums just yet atleast not until they have some effective medication. So the damage on economy will continue for quite some time. Availability of vaccines will give a larger sense or security to public and at that point we might get back to normalcy. Until then opening things with some strategy in place and in phases is the only likely solution.

The real question I have is how much risk is there of dying due to covid-19? The current stats give 3 to 4%, but they only consider the infected population to calculate it. Ideally everybody including asymptomatic also need to be included. My belief is that there is quite a large population that is already covid-19 positive but not yet detected. This rate is going to come down substantially to somewhere below 1%. And even in that percentage, majority is going to be elderly or sick. Covid-19 may have been counted as the reason for somebody who would have anyways died in 2020 due to either age and/or sickness. Please don't get me wrong, I feel sympathy and they are indeed needed to be locked down. But can normalcy not happen for healthy while practicing social distancing ? I am sure it is possible. Nevertheless, 1000 deaths that Sweden accounts for is still less than NY. You can always argue that Swedes are by nature aloof and perhaps much bigger in area (I don't really know). But if you can apply the cruise ship stats and use that as a sacrosanct number, is Sweden that out of the norm to be taken as another example ?

btw, We can use our prevalence estimates to approximate the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. As of April 10, 2020, 50 people have died of COVID-19 in the County, with an average increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. If our estimates of48,000-81,000 infections represent the cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to death22), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%. If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or if the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower. These straightforward estimations of infection fatality rate fail to account for age structure and changing treatment approaches to COVID-19. Nevertheless, our prevalence estimates can be used to update existing fatality rates given the large upwards revision of under-ascertainment.

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It seems, more and more nations are just behind the Vaccine,.. Oxford and Gil-dale seems to be even more confident, so let us hope, pray our iiisht-dev,...dat, eventually they will perform, all combined study, w/ each other and by trials and errors and additions and omissions, will come out to a final concrete, working out solution,...

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Originally posted by: .Vrish.

Another thing I was told by my sister in Kolkata was that in hospitals there, they've been instructed not to record any cases as Covid-19, in order to keep Bengal's numbers looking low. This is what one of the doctors living in her society told her. Has anyone else noticed this?

If I tell the reality there than again political discussion will be there so no to it ..

Many will lose their lives in west bengal the things that are going on at ground level and rest of india will not come to know about it ..it's mini China in india

I just uploaded,...

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https://youtu.be/QqhmoS2QuDk

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Gilead and Oxford ( below links ) are doing good,..... and more confident, in finding a Vaccine and they will soon, come out with something concrete: Let's hope so,....... God bless them,...

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https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/oxford-university-scientists-starting-human-trials-for-virus-vaccine-next-week/

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May Force be with us,....

Detailed article covering COVID-19's death rate

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/as-officials-plan-to-reopen-the-economy-a-key-unknown-remains-how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus/2020/04/17/0bd2f938-7e49-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html

Also mentions the Stanford study of Santa Clara County (very timely, considering the article came out just this afternoon).

They mentioned that Iceland (which tested 10% of it's population) has a fatality rate of 0.5%. Icelanders are significantly healthier than Americans, so a rate for America among the general population would be higher.

Also, we know from NYC that fatality rate is a minimum of 0.15% of the population of NYC -- if the whole of NYC were infected. But I doubt more than 25% infected, and taking the lagging of deaths into effect, I think probably around 0.75 - 1%