K. Folks,.... Political, Communal and Home-life related discussions apart,....
But I see,... and b-t-w,
Don't know why everyone swings between two extremes. There is a middle ground between "would you sacrifice your loved ones" and "would you blow up the economy". Even the most liberal and conservative policy makers understand this.
The strategy is to follow the Chinese model, to bend the curve and start opening a few sectors and areas and then shut them down again if the infection spreads. This cycle will follow for a long time, well into next year till there is a vaccine.
I don't see schools opening for a while, so either way the economic damage is going to be massive.
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The idea would be to try and open what you can and let maybe the young or healthier folks start spending. I heard on many conference calls about singles complaining not being able to go out and eat and how miserable they are cooking. If some folks want to partially keep the economy running, in my view that is a good trade off . No one is forcing anyone to go outside.
The vulnerable can stay indoors. If the spread increases it is back to isolation.
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We don't need lockdown when it is not necessary. I am already sick of sitting at the same place the whole day. But, currently with the disease progressing and NY morgues filling with dead bodies, we need to control this thing first and get a handle of the situation. Who knows after lockdown it may come down substantially. But also,... they say,.. Jaan hai, toh jahaan hai !
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I think we should also remember its not like cases magically become ZERO after very next day vaccine becomes available.
I hope i am wrong here.
take polio ..vaccine was made available sometime during 1952 so kind of 2yrs after the outbreak reported ..
But even America became polio free maybe during 70s or 80s and rest of world took even more time for number of reasons..
So in short it can be possible Covid-19 is here to stay for quite some time OR if we are lucky it can magically go away without need of vaccine.
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People from both ends need to understand that Lockdown is NECESSARY but not sufficient to eliminate Covid. Despite everyone's best efforts, economy is going to get serious hits for a long time to come AND people are going to die even in our close circle (though we obviously may not want it). Staying inside for 6 months+ may be possible for a select few but even they cannot eliminate human contact. Best we can do is be pragmatic in opening and closing the economy (sectors) and cities on a case-by-case basis even multiple times as needed. Politicians will now be tested on Governance for a change instead of on rhetoric on Nationalism or gun-rights/abortion etc. (one can hope!)
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The problem here is, that when you're faced with an epidemic, you can't wait for perfect information. It takes a long time, and is not easy to get information on how quickly the virus spreads. Even for existing viruses, it takes a while to look at past data. And the virus spreads exponentially. Waiting for perfect information means waiting till the disease has spread dramatically -- well, we can see what happened in NYC vs SFO.
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And saying that allowing 'young people' to mix normally. is 'the fastest and safest way' flies in the face of what we do seem to know -- that young people can be carriers, that asymptomatic people can be carriers. We could turn their argument around and ask what proof there is that simply allowing young people to mix normally will flatten the curve.
Finally, we do know definitely that social isolation does work for human transmitted diseases. It has worked for centuries, millennia, even when we didn't have medications. Obviously, I won't work for something like malaria that is mosquito spread, but it does work for human spread diseases, especially respiratory diseases.
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Someone may say, ... If social isolation worked, wouldn’t Sweden, a Nordic country of 10.1 million people, be seeing the number of COVID-19 cases skyrocket into the tens of thousands, blowing past the numbers in Italy or New York City? As of today, there are 401 reported COVID-19 deaths in Sweden. Sweden is doing worse with the disease than it's neighbors, the Nordic countries of Finland, Denmark and Norway. And it's economy has taken a pretty big hit too, so it may indeed get the worst of both worlds.
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Yes, we've been coping with viruses for untold generations, and have suffered enormously, with smallpox, bacterial diseases like the plague, Cholera and TB and protozoan diseases like malaria taking tens, hundreds of millions. That was how we had 'Nature get this'. And note that those diseases devastated economies and wiped out empires too. "Nature's getting this' is a very painful process.
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And we came up with methods (such as water treatment) to get rid of cholera. And the way we've developed herd immunity to smallpox was through VACCINATION. Which we don't have for COVID, but may.
Switzerland, Austria and Germany are talking of opening up their countries gradually over the next few weeks. And so is India. I earnestly hope,.. all goes well,...
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1 in 500k may die, no matter what their age or fitness level is. Many young adults have died. Few kids have also died because of this.
I am not one to risk even a remote chance if I have a way. And whats good for me is good for everyone in this country. And hence not going to support removal of lock down without any planning.
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On da other hand,
No, I do not think we should lock down and sit on our hands.
If you are interested you can study how Germany has handled this issue from beginning and they are now planning to open up since they have a system in place.
I will write a detailed plan about how to go about this but that will need competent leaders willing to delegate decision making down the chain not effing megalomaniacs always looking how to win elections.
But one thing is very clear to me, I do not want to lose even a single family member and I will figure out a way to not go broke. Because a life lost will never get replaced but money lost can be replaced or we can learn to live with less.
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If our country was to be attacked by enemies, then I believe all lives are on the table to defend it and I will be the first one on the front lines. But this is not such a case. And I feel bad for the health workers who are having to man the battle without enough protective equipment.
Germany now has a plan how to open up. Even Singapore and South Korea may have a plan now.
But USA and India are still wandering in the dark led by incompetent leaders, 2 months after the virus was well known.
Germany can afford to open up because they have the best epidemic management system in place in terms of testing, contact tracing and isolating infected.
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But countries like USA and India are completely un prepared to do anything. In USA we still do not have enough tests that anybody with mild symptoms can be tested.
We will need everyone to install apps for ease of contact tracing but that's going to lead to privacy issues.
We will need compensation for people who are forced to stay home if they are infected and I have no heard anyone propose anything so it becomes a personal tragedy for someone who cannot work from home.
Non-vegans, also mind you and be known and wary of the fact that, Let's not forget that your food is being harvested and your meat is being processed largely by illegals now. They are keeping us fed and in the case of meat factories, at risk to themselves (a number of clusters in such factories). A byproduct of this crisis should be that we have more empathy for people who do risky, but low paid work, like delivery, waitpersons, retail workers, agricultural workers, meat plant workers.
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b-t-w, I sincerely apologize, if I did hurt someone's religious feelings by my earlier posting of " Kalaki avatar of Lord Krishna,... as Corona " - Lingo,.. ( in fact, I got 3 consecutive 20% high Warning Light meter ( WL meter running on RED ) mark RED zone warnings, also for that and other hurt-feelins, in just this week,.. ) but, somehow I had seen and read that as a latest tweet from Bachchan saab from his twitter page and I will sure ask him @ that,... Big B Saar has replied to my very few tweets in da past,... would earnestly wish from him, about his 'say' on this and that narrative on his twitter page,..
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So? Folks,.. Cheers,.. Stay home, Stay safe, ...... Eat, drink ( soft ones only ) n' be merry ! ( Do useful productive work and spend happy time with kids and family,.. do not do any Diwali kinda house cleaning work ( unfortunately, not at this time ) of shaking corners, bed-sheets, sweaters , old winter blankets,.... etc ) ! Maintain n' Preserve good health, wealth n' happiness,... Stay hale and hearty, fine n' fit,............ n'..May God bless us all,.........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCyqcoC747o
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Edited by Himalaya10 - 5 years ago
Hui Ghum Yaadein
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