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Seat wise prediction for BJP

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How many seats can BJP get ON ITS OWN?

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mr.ass thumbnail
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Posted: 5 years ago
Hey guys,
I wrote the poll from the POV of BJP, since Modi seems to be setting the agenda and they are the ones defending. I haven't put a number below 170 or above 300 because even the worst polls don't go below 180 for bjp (although polls can go wrong), and it's unlikely that they'll get above 300 , due to WB, Kerala, AP, Telangana, and due to the mahagatbandhan in UP.

My prediction: taking the base of 282 from 2014,
reduce 4 seats from Raj, 4 seats from MP, 2 seats from Guj, 35 seats from UP. 2 seats from Maharashtra, 6 seats from chattisgarh, 1 seat in andhra and one seat from J and K = 55 down, bringing it to 227

and add 8 seats in WB, 12 seats in Odisha, 2 seats in Tripura, 2 seats in Haryana, 1 seat in Jharkhand, 1 seat in Kerala , 2 seats in Assam, 2 seats in Tamil Nadu, 3 seats in Karnataka, 1 seat in arunachal , we get 34
To get a total of 261 -I'll  put it in the 230 to 250 range, as a few of my plus seats will probably go wrong(WB, kerala , TN)
Edited by mr.ass - 5 years ago

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FreeTheNipple thumbnail
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Posted: 5 years ago
Your analysis looks reasonable, I would go with 250 as well. I am not sure about Jharkhand and Karnataka, BJP may end up losing seats there. 
FreeTheNipple thumbnail
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Posted: 4 years ago

Well looks like this is a wave this time as well. Would not be surprised with 350ish for NDA.

Wistfulness thumbnail
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Posted: 4 years ago

This content was originally posted by: SatoshiNakamoto

Well looks like this is a wave this time as well. Would not be surprised with 350ish for NDA.

2019 is not a wave...it's a Tsunami.

-RD- thumbnail
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Posted: 4 years ago

Itna vitriolic venomous divisive and personal international and national campaign against one MAN Modi  making him look like a deamon BUT the average indian is way smarter aware and wiser now and so has responded to the agenda driven campaign in STYLE take that you pseudo liberals seculars etc your shop is shut for the next few years if not permanently! More Power to Modi, RW! Jai Shree Ram PS really happy AAP is set to hopefully lose all in Dilli while Sadhvi is set to trounce Diggy and Smriti will do Rahul Baba ka gameover 🤞🤞

BJP on its own is getting 300 LOL at these pseudo seculars liberals blah blah 

Edited by -RD- - 4 years ago
rockingcouple12 thumbnail
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Posted: 4 years ago

 BJP sweeped completely.Only BJP also can form the government.Neither priyanka Gandhi nor the negative publicity worked for the opposition.

Har har Modi ,ghar ghar Modi in true sense.

MaYa.B thumbnail
Posted: 4 years ago

lolz its once again proved RG is star speaker for BJP ,congress should have to wake Up atleast now, first dethrone RG ,make manmohan ,shashi taroor,pranab or someone new as independent leader to congress plz say no to gandhi-vadera family,congress is not their family property  .in south india (me too from South) cracking the joke  like south literacy rate was high so that their BJP failed(Kerala,TN),me really?? the same illiterate ppl gave chance to congress till 2009  ðŸ˜†

 even i m not really happy during 2014 Modi 's victory but this time  i extremely happy coz he deserve this win , i never say he is flawless PM but he much better then jokers and buffoons ,biased secular ppl

p.s no offence plz

Edited by MaYa.B - 4 years ago
FreeTheNipple thumbnail
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Posted: 4 years ago

More than seat share, what is more revealing is the crazy vote share of BJP across West, North and East India. On surface, the mandate appears similar to 2014, but vote share reveals a different picture. From Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, UP, Bihar, Karanataka, where BJP/NDA is clocking  50-60% vote to Himachal Pradesh, where it is touching even 70%, winning margin is just mind boggling in most of these cases. How they managed 50% votes in UP is a story in itself.

This is probably a destruction of caste politics in national elections atleast temporarily (if 2014 was not enough). Whether the vote was for Hindutva, nationalism, DBTs under welfare schemes, microeconomics, demonetization hit & trial 😆, GST, IBC, okayish job on macroeconomics, speedy infrastructure development, or a seemingly corruption free government, it is clear voters were clear who and what they are voting for. Local issues were just totally sidelined, it was a mandate on Modi and NDA-2. Whether their assessment was right/wrong is always a moot point in democracy and should be debated strongly in coming days. 

On one hand, this is exciting for me as an observer of Indian politics but somewhere also worrisome since I also want to see a decent opposition. To keep required checks on the government in such kind of a mandate, even BJP supporters must fulfill the duty of questioning the government from time to time and critically analyze the performance of NDA-3 on all accounts.